Market Rasen Race Preview, 28-09-19

Market Rasen
Saturday September 28th
Going: Good to Soft (Good in places)
Weather: The odd light shower

* = Shortlist or Alternative: ** = Selection

Market Rasen 2.15
Ferry Ales Double Trouble Juvenile Hurdle Class 2 3-y-o
2m125y – 8 runners

     The Katchit-race from a few years ago, but it’s open to question whether anything as good will emerge from it. Neither of the two winners in the field, Repetitio* and Zeb Spirit, earned ratings of 100 on my figures for their victories at Newton Abbot and Fontwell respectively, and of those recruits from the Flat one stands out a mile – Production**, trained by Richard Hannon on the level and successful off a BHA rating of 76 at Redcar in June over 1m2f; he’s now trained by Katchit’s handler Alan King, and is sure to have been well schooled. The only thing going for Lonimoss Bareliere is that he’s trained by Dan Skelton, but his last time out-10th off just 59 shouldn’t get him near Production on paper.

Selection: PRODUCTION
Alternative: Repetitio

Market Rasen 4.00
Ferry Ales Brewery Prelude Handicap Hurdle Class 1 Listed
2m125y – 13 runners

Mohaayed
The 2018 County Hurdle winner was disappointing to start with in 2018/19 but, in first time cheekpieces, won Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas, up there throughout, ridden turning in, stayed on and opened up a 4-length lead 2 out, hard driven between last 2, was closed on, driven out from last, stayed on well last 175 yards to beat Lisp just over 2 lengths. Matched that form when 7th to Ch’tibello in the latest renewal of the County at the Cheltenham Festival, again up with the pace,  narrow leader home turn, soon headed, hard ridden and outpaced approaching last, faded nearing it looked held when mistake, hard driven, no more up the hill. Again ridden up with the pace till weakening late stepped up in trip in the 2m4f handicap hurdle at Aintree behind Three Musketeers when last seen. Shouldn’t be winning this off 152 and with no cheekpieces, but this isn’t as strong as any of the races he was in last season
Gumball
Runner-up to We Have A Dream in 2018 Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree. Rather lost his way over hurdles last season, not beter than midfield behind Global Citizen in Gerry Feilden at Newbury when last seen jumping, the time before failing to come up the hill at Cheltenham behind Pearl Of The West last October. Has had a revival on the Flat in Winter and Spring with 3 wins, most recently at Salisbury on April 28th, went on racing freely as usual, shaken up 2 1/2f out, sustained effort and held 2- to 3-length lead till closed on late but never in danger, beating Scaramanga a length and a half; again went on and took a hold at Newmarket when last seen on May 17th, headed 3f out, was bumped 2f out, weakened last 150 yards behind Lissitsky, 4th beaten just over 8 lengths. Makes the odd mistake over hurdles, but chances at best
Azzuri
Won at Ayr’s Scottish National meeting for the second year running in Listed 2m handicap chase in April, made all, drew clear home turn, moved best of the field and led 5 lengths 4 out, ridden into 3 out, some 10 lengths ahead last, readily beat Vosne Romanee 9 lengths. Last seen in the Galway Plate but failed to stay, pushed along to make a start, prominent, led after 1st, 3 lengths clear 3rd, was joined 4th, headed briefly 5th but soon led again, niggled along before not fluent 8th, led 2 to 3 lengths before blundered 9th, niggled along in a neck lead after 3 out, pushed along and weakened approaching 2 out and last, put under pressure but already well held when dropped back through field home turn, 12th beaten 22 lengths behind Borice. Whacked up the weights over hurdles as well as fences, and running over hurdles for the first time since June 2017, some of his worst performances over jumps have been on right-handed tracks, so as I did prior to the Ayr race, I’m taking him on. Start the season as you mean to go on…
Earlofthecotswolds*
Largely progressive novice last season, winning 3 times, 2 of them at Market Rasen (adding to a bumper win at the track), and took a Class 3 handicap hurdle on final start last season, over 2m4f139y; disputed lead, steady pace, ridden into and slow 2nd, pace increased a little approaching 4th, started to race a little keenly, narrowly headed when ridden into 6th, narrow lead 3 out, moved comfortably, led half a length home turn, sprint finish developed approaching 2 out, travelled best in a length and a half lead, shaken up after 2 out, stayed on, a bit flat-backed last, ridden out, stayed on well run-in, was closed on and wandered last 150 yards, always holding on, beat The Sweeney just over a length. It wasn’t a proper test at the trip, suggesting that he’ll be fine over just 2m here, and it was an improved round of jumping compared to his 2nd to Rhythm Is A Dancer at Ludlow the time before. Favourite’s chance
Scarlet Dragon*
Raced sparingly over hurdles but showed promise on hurdling debut in 2018; won at Huntingdon on first hurdles run last season, but better form when 4th to Getaway Trump on the final day of the season at Sandown, looked well, held up, came wide and effort straight going comfortably to close on leaders approaching 2 out, shaken up, stayed on, chance of a place last, hard ridden and no extra final 150 yards. Fit from the Flat after a run at Newbury 8 days ago, tracked leaders 4f out, niggled along and pulled wide, every chance 3f out, shaken up, hard driven and challenged leader 2f out, every chance entering last, no extra 100 yards out, faded a little final strides, 3rd to Shailene beaten a length, at the end of a less-than-well-run race in which the principals all made their move at the same time. Back to hurdles here; he does lack size, but definitely has the ability and has often run well after a quick turnaround
Flashing Glance
Hard to win with but got a victory at Ludlow (2nd course win) in February, in close to 4th and 5th, nudged along approaching 6th and closed on leader, pushed along and not going as well as the 2 ahead of him approaching home turn, held place turning in and held every chance, ground taken on inner and hampered 3 out, ridden, again not much room 2 out, stayed on, every chance last, hard driven, stayed on under pressure, led 150 yards out, sustained effort, just held on. Wasn’t looking like a winner in the last three quarters of a mile but beat Red Mix half a length. Ran as well in the 2m handicap hurdle at Aintree on Grand National day, lost place with mistakes back straight, improved to hold every chance 2 out then unable to go on before last when 5th to Chief Justice beaten just over 6 lengths. Was off between then and reappearance at Stratford on September 7th, led, a little keen, ridden into 4th, hung right and headed bend before 5th with both jockey’s hands on one side of horse’s head, led again turning in to back straight, led a length 2 out, headed soon after it, pushed along approaching turn out of back straight, weakened quickly, tailing off when fell last behind Teqany. Has a chance on some of his form but tends to lack resolve in the closing stages
Storm Rising
Wins on 1st 2 starts last season, the first of which was a 0-140 handicap at Cheltenham with something in hand, saw him whacked up the weights and things proved harder for him, as he failed to impress with his attitude on later runs, notably when 6th to Uno Mas at Cheltenham on April 17th,  lost place and midfield when slow 3rd, struggling 5th, pushed along at the top of the hill before 2 out, mistake, kept on and just about tagged on to back of the leading group, outpaced approaching last, passed a beaten one, beaten 10 lengths. Last out at Newton Abbot in May when 9 lengths 2nd to Beltor, led, clear, niggled along approaching bend before 5th, hard ridden and reminder after 5th, stayed on after 3 out in 2-length lead, hard driven and strongly challenged turning out of back straight, carried head high, headed and weakened home turn, hard driven but no extra approaching 2 out, rallied and stayed on into well-held 2nd last, no more, Morally he was the third best horse on the day, looking a difficult ride for most of the last circuit. Doesn’t have a good fresh record, this his first run for 143 days, and his now-usual blinkers are missing
Jacamar
Has won twice over hurdles to date, at Wincanton in April and last time out, at Newton Abbot in September, midfield, in close to 5th, niggled along starting final circuit, ridden into 6th, tracked leaders approaching 3 out, got a split and challenged leaders approaching turn out of back straight, travelled best as disputed lead approaching home turn, niggled along turning in, led, pushed along approaching 2 out as came to stands’ side, led 2 lengths and mistake, hard driven, stayed on, some 5 lengths up last, ridden out, workmanlike and unchallenged by 10 lengths from Rococo River. Looks a chaser on TV pictures and also, the way he runs, probably lacks the speed for decent 2m hurdles, with a lolloping stride – something to find at the weights too (official rating was 118 before the Newton Abbot race, and for this first handicap it’s now 128)
The Gipper
Exposed but won twice over hurdles last season, at Lingfield in December and at Ffos Las 7 days later, chased leader, disputed lead 4th, led 5th, niggled along in a length lead home turn, soon niggled along, pushed along approaching 2 out, stayed on, drew well clear by last, reached for it, eased last 100 yards, readily and unchallenged by 8 lengths from Radical Archie. Best subsequent run was in Challenger Two Mile Final at Haydock on April 20th, lost place approaching turn out of back straight, well held but not knocked about approaching 3 out, hard ridden after it, no impression, well held when jumped left 2 out, no more behind Cubswin. Soft or heavy ground is important to this one and although there are showers forecast, it doesn’t look as though it’s going to be soft enough
See The Sea*
At one time was rated 71 on the Flat. Switched to hurdling in April and has done well with 3 wins, the last of which was in a 0-120 handicap at Bangor on August 19th, led, clear early, raced freely, a length up 6th but moved comfortably, ridden into 3 out, drew clear again home turn, pushed along, stayed on in front, in clost to 2 out, reminder approaching last, sustained effort, some 8 to 10 lengths clear last, at most pushed out, unchallenged by 9 lengths from The Herds Garden. Comes here with risks after some antics at the start last time at Stratford, veered badly right as the tape was released, led 1st, was joined momentarily approaching turn in to back straight and again 3 out, headed after 2 out as 1st 2 pulled clear, pushed along approaching turn out of back straight, hard driven once in line for home, headed and faded approaching last, weakened and well held run-in, no more. Admittedly not helped by her misbehaviour, all the same she was 9/4 compared to the winner Pacify’s 4/9 – for the latter it was the fourth victory on the spin. The Bangor win gives her a good chance
Definitelyanoscar
Largely consistent, and won at Warwick in November, but pulled up behind Sensulano at Cheltenham in December and found little when 3rd to Musical Slave at Ludlow in March, held up, effort and made ground to be a length down with every chance 3 out, hard ridden, stayed on, bumped rival approaching 2 out, ridden and stayed on, every chance upsides in a line of 3 last, driven, weakened last 125 yards, losing ground on 1st 2 at the line, beaten just over 4 lengths. First start this season, was first past the post at Newton Abbot on August 20th, niggled along turning out of back straight, headway approaching home turn, pushed along, hard ridden and not much room on inner approaching 2 out, had a length and a bit to find and got a split shortly after it, strong effort and led approaching last, wandered a couple of strides before it, ridden out run-in, stayed on well, beat Empreinte reconce just under a length but disqualified when jockey weighed in light. Doesn’t jump off the page but hard to rule out, not raised for that ‘win’
Applesandpierres
Formerly a useful jumper, highest winning mark 124 in April 2017. Off a year, nothing much in claiming hurdles in France in August and September, in the latter at Compiegne on September 12th good headway going comfortably home turn, every chance 2 out, pushed along, carried head awkwardly and hung left,  in 3 lengths 2nd when in close to last, hard driven, weakened last 150 yards, losing ground on the 3rd and was being closed on by the 5th last 75 yards, beaten 13 lengths by Vendelogne. Little expected from 6 lbs out of the handicap
Go West Young Man
Still as hard to win with as ever and his getting out of winning at Perth in a 0-110 handicap chase on Wednesday of this week was pretty spectacular, led 8th, travelled comfortably (more comfortably than nearest pursuer Lucky Robin, the eventual winner), moved best of the field home turn, led 2 lengths 3 out, not shaken up, led a length and a half when in close to 2 out, headed, had gone half a length down when ridden, stayed on and upsides with every chance when given no room by rivals on either side last, squeezed whilst jumping, hard ridden, hung and found little, weakened last 150 yards, lost 3rd close home after it looked more like it would be a 3-length win, rather than 4th beaten 3 lengths, turning for home. Nothing expected in this better race from 16 lbs out of the handicap

Shortlist: Earlofthecotswolds, Scarlet Dragon, See The Sea

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